U.S. media: Russia “encircles” Ukraine on three sides, most likely to launch an invasion from “here”

Tensions in Ukraine have grown, with the United States inferring that Russia has assembled more than 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border and warning it could invade Ukraine at any time.

According to an analysis by CNN on February 12, Russian troops are located in three places around Ukraine, including the Russian side of the border between the two countries, namely the East Ukrainian separatist area, Belarus in the north, and Kerry in the south. Crimea.

The best route to attack in eastern Ukraine
CNN reported on the 12th that among the above-mentioned three fronts, the separatist areas of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine attracted the most attention. This has also become the most ideal route for Russia to invade Ukraine. Belarus and Crimea offensives are full of risks.

The report quoted satellite images showing that the Yelnya military base in Russia itself has deployed 700 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and ballistic missile launchers, but recently the above-mentioned military equipment has been moved closer to the Ukrainian-Russian border. .

Military activity in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, which border northeastern Ukraine, has also become more frequent.

Bad location of Belarus
Belarus is a close ally of Russia. The two countries will start a 10-day joint military exercise on the 10th. The scale of the exercise is the largest since the Cold War. Factors such as the timing of the exercise have raised concerns in the West.

However, the route from Belarus to Kiev was very difficult, because the Russian army had to pass through one of the largest wetlands in Europe, the 104,000-square-mile Pinsk Swamp (Pinsk, also known as Pripet) to enter Ukraine; and In wet weather, it was difficult for mechanized troops to cross the swamp.

Unfavorable attack in Crimea
Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, has also become a possible route option for Ukraine. The US satellite imagery company Maxar captured more than 550 troop tents and hundreds of military vehicles north of the Crimean capital Simferopol. It was also the first time on the 10th in Slavny, a town on the northwest coast of Crimea. (Slavne) saw a military build-up such as armored vehicles, and the Black Sea port city of Sevastopol (Sevastopol) also deployed six large amphibious landing ships.

Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) believe that the Russian army may try to drive a large amphibious landing ship into the Black Sea port of Odessa in northwest Crimea and directly into Ukraine. However, Odessa is a densely populated city, and fighting in the city will be more beneficial to the defending side, so the risk to the Russian army is higher.

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