Because they want to join the American camp? Why is Russia attacking Ukraine, which has been independent for many years?

War between Russia and Ukraine is about to break out! U.S. intelligence shows that Russia may choose to launch an invasion of Ukraine as soon as this Wednesday (16th). The “Wartime Emergency Response Guide” issued by the authorities last year (2021) was compiled for the public’s reference.

It announced the escape routes and methods to the five neighboring countries in the West, and called on the public to confirm the location of the nearby air raid shelters in advance and prepare civilian materials. If you need government assistance when escaping, you can hang white clothes on doorknobs and windows as signs, and remind people to avoid talking with strangers, avoid false information, information warfare, and only follow official instructions…etc.

The 14-page detailed contingency guide shows that the tension between Russia and Ukraine has further escalated, and the possibility of war seems to be increasing.

In fact, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine became an independent state, but there are still pro-Russian and anti-Russian forces in the country. At the same time, Vladimir Putin also insisted on restoring the former glory of the Soviet Union. Ukraine and Ukraine are described as “one people, a single whole”. Against this historical background, Ukraine and the West are getting closer and closer, which has become the biggest fuse in this conflict between Russia and Ukraine. No hesitation.

Crimea, Donbas conflict unresolved, unexploded bombs buried in war

Ukraine’s increasingly close ties with NATO have angered Russia, and the Donbas region, where pro-Russian and anti-Russian conflicts have not stopped, is also one of the reasons for the conflict.

NATO’s full name is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). It is a military alliance led by the United States and jointly established with many European countries. Russia has been dissatisfied with the continuous expansion of NATO for many years, including the participation of many former Soviet Union members. Putin accused the United States In violation of a 1990 promise to the Soviet Union that NATO “doesn’t expand an inch to the east”, Ukraine’s current president, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, is pro-Western and actively wants to join NATO.

As for the Donbas region, it is located in the eastern part of Ukraine, and the people mostly speak Russian and have a strong pro-Russian attitude. In 2014, Ukraine ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, and in response Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in southern Ukraine and backed pro-Russian separatist insurgents in Donbass. In the same year, European leaders held a series of talks with Putin in order to quell the conflict in Ukraine, calling it the “Normandy Model”.

However, the agreement was weak, and the conflict between rebels and Ukrainian government forces continues to this day, killing more than 13,000 soldiers and civilians. In 2021, the deterioration of Russia-Ukraine relations will accelerate, because Russia is dissatisfied with the West’s request to approve Ukraine’s request to join NATO, and Ukraine will conduct joint military exercises with NATO member states. Putin also accused Ukraine of sending mercenaries to the Donbas region and launching armed forces for the first time. Drone strikes … etc., accusing it of violating the Minsk Agreement, breaking the ceasefire treaty, and trying to change the status quo.

The West and Russia can’t reach a consensus. Putin seizes the great opportunity to attack?

At the end of 2021, in order to force the West to take seriously Russia’s request that NATO not expand eastward, the Russian army will expand its military deployment on the Russian-Ukrainian border, with 100,000 troops. More military assistance to Ukraine has led to a sharp rise in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

In addition, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs proposed an unreasonable draft of a “security guarantee” treaty to NATO in December, seeking to limit NATO’s expansion of influence, including prohibiting Ukraine and other former Soviet Union member states from joining NATO, and prohibiting the United States from engaging in military activities and stationing troops in disputed areas. , and demanded that the United States not deploy nuclear weapons outside its own territory… etc. These demands were immediately dismissed by NATO officials, and the West and Russia were further away from reaching a mutual consensus.

The New York Times pointed out that Putin is basically seeking to redefine the borders of Europe after the Cold War, establish a safe zone dominated by Russia, and if necessary, will use force to retake Ukraine. Is this the “necessary moment”? ?

According to a poll by Ukrainian media last year, up to 81% of Ukrainians were disgusted with Putin. “BBC” speculates that even though Russia has taken frequent actions over the years and actively extended its power to Ukraine secretly, it has pushed it further and further. Realizing the need for a different strategy, and the current divisions in the Western world, he decided that now was a great opportunity to escalate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Bruno Maçães, a senior researcher at the Hudson Institute, an American think tank, pointed out two main reasons: the collapse of the situation in Afghanistan and the chaotic withdrawal of troops, showing the lack of unity between Europe and the United States; and the good relationship with Putin. With the departure of Angela Merkel, the former German chancellor of ties, Europe has lost a precious bridge for peaceful dialogue with Russia. Therefore, Putin believes that the Western world, led by the United States, is fragile, organized and disorganized, and now is the “era of Russia”.

The grievances and grievances between Russia and Ukraine have remained unresolved for 30 years. The complex historical background of the past is intertwined with the ever-changing international situation today, which has pushed the tension between Russia and Ukraine to the highest point so far.

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