The outbreak of the new crown pneumonia (COVID-19) in China is likely to hit the world’s largest smartphone market, but analysts believe that Apple Inc.’s market share should be supported, and the Android camp will bear most of the impact.
CNBC reported on the 6th that Neil Mawston, executive director of Strategy Analytics, predicted that in the second quarter of this year, China’s smartphone shipments may drop by 20% year-on-year due to the impact of the epidemic. China’s Android smartphone competition remains brutal, with as many as half a dozen brands including Xiaomi vying for the dwindling Android pie.
Neil Shah, a partner at Counterpoint Research, predicted in an interview that smartphone sales in April to May may drop by 12% to 13% year-on-year. Shah believes that if the epidemic can be cooled down and the promotion season starts, China’s smartphone sales in June are expected to recover, bringing the annual decline in Q2 sales to 3% to 4%. If the epidemic continues to spread, Q2 sales may decrease by 12% year-on-year.
In contrast, Apple is doing pretty well. Shah said that the Q2 iPhone shipment forecast is only down 4% to 5% year-on-year, partly due to seasonal factors, as the popularity of new products subsides.
Mawston even predicted that Apple’s market share in China is expected to expand in 2022, as loyal and wealthy fruit fans prepare to upgrade to newer or more affordable 5G models.