Bitcoin breaks $40,000, and the market is extremely fearful that $30,000 will be probed in June

Bitcoin fell below the $40,000 round-point level with tech stocks for the first time since March 16. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, predicts that Bitcoin could hit $30,000 by the end of June.

Business Insiders and MarketWatch reported that Hayes said on his blog on the 11th that the trend of Bitcoin has always been closely related to large technology stocks, and there is a risk of a sharp decline in the future, because the technology industry is once again faced with rising nominal interest rates, reduced global fiat currency liquidity, and economic growth. Slow down the pressure.

The chart shown by Hayes shows that from the perspective of 10-day, 30-day and 90-day periods, Bitcoin is closely linked with the Nasdaq 100 index, and the short-term (10-day) correlation is even higher.

As long as the 10-day correlation remains high, investment positions in cryptocurrencies need to be conservative, Hayes said. He predicts that Bitcoin may drop to $30,000 by the end of the second quarter of this year (in June). Hayes said that the Fed has no plans to expand its balance sheet in the near future, which means that it is difficult for the stock market to reach new highs. He believes that the Russian-Ukrainian war will push up the price of raw materials, which will hit the global economy.

Charlie Erith, CEO of cryptocurrency investment agency ByteTree, said that as long as Bitcoin holds its fair value of $38,000, it is unlikely to crash in the short term. However, below this hurdle, the situation becomes quite pessimistic.

According to CoinDesk quotations, as of 10:51 a.m. Taipei time on the 12th, bitcoin was at $39,479.39, down 5.67% from 24 hours ago; it has fallen 14.45% year-to-date.

According to Alternative.me data, when Bitcoin was quoted at $39,666 on the 12th, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index) followed to 20 points, reaching the “extreme fear” level.

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