Shanghai has finally ushered in the initial “micro-unblocking”, but under the premise of the continuous dynamic clearing policy, Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory is still unable to start construction, and the shutdown time may exceed original expectations.
Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory has been suspended since March 28, and it was originally expected to resume work in mid-April, but due to the continued tension of the epidemic, the resumption of work seems to be a long way off.
Shanghai announced the “micro-unblocking” of some areas yesterday. Only about one-fifth of the citizens can go out to take a breath, and most of the rest are still staying at home according to regulations. The Pudong Lingang Industrial Zone, where Giga Shanghai is located, is continuously closed. The latest news pointed out that the Shanghai Gigafactory may not resume work until May 15.
“According to local contacts in China, Tesla’s Shanghai plant will need to be shut down for at least a month.” Gordon Johnson, an analyst at research firm GLJ Research, said the worst thing is that the Shanghai plant is not expected to resume until the third quarter of 2022. maximum capacity.
Since the electric vehicle factory is not a necessity for people’s livelihood, and Tesla employees come from many different regions, the priority of reopening will be very low, and it is impossible to put all of them in place at one time. It must be partitioned to allow some employees to gradually return to the factory.
According to Tesla’s estimation, it will take 2-3 days to restore the original production capacity for one day of shutdown. If the dynamic clearing can be achieved on June 1, then Tesla will need at least the third quarter to restore the original production capacity. productivity. In other words, in the second quarter of this year, Tesla is likely to experience losses not seen in a long time.
“We don’t think the stock price has fully priced in the shutdown in Shanghai, and Tesla’s production in the second quarter of this year is likely to be less than 190,000 vehicles,” Gordon Johnson said. Compared to the 300,000-plus vehicles in the past two quarters, the second quarter does not look optimistic.
Tesla’s stock price has tumbled for two days in a row, causing many investors to panic, but don’t forget that Gordon Johnson is also a super black, always estimating Tesla’s situation from the worst angle, and this time is no exception. According to the current official statement, the resumption of work will be re-evaluated every week. Although the resumption of work in mid-April seems hopeless, it is uncertain whether it will be delayed until mid-May.
Don’t forget that the entire Shanghai city is heavily involved in the Chinese economy. Under political considerations, the city closure policy will be a “dynamic” decision, not a monolithic one, just like the reset policy.