Air pollution is so severe that India’s solar potential is reduced by 29%

We hope that through solar energy, the energy transition will be smooth and eventually net zero carbon emissions will be achieved, but if the air pollution is too serious, no matter how many solar panels are installed, the effect will be greatly reduced, the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) team pointed out , India has lost 29% of solar energy development potential.

Sagnik Dey, associate professor of atmospheric sciences at the Indian Institute of Technology, said that the main reason why air pollution reduces solar power generation is mainly because aerosols absorb and scatter light. According to the team’s research, between 2001 and 2018, India’s solar energy potential has dropped by 29% due to air pollution, which is equivalent to an annual loss of 835 million US dollars.

Dey pointed out that aerosols such as dust, particles, mist, and fumigation in the air can significantly reduce the amount of solar radiation, which is also known as the atmospheric attenuation effect. Usually, when large-scale solar development projects are carried out, developers have to With this in mind, some manufacturers do not take into account the “pollution impact” of aerosol deposition on solar panels.

India is currently sprinting solar installations, but according to research center Mercom India, as of March this year, India’s solar installation capacity is only half of the target, only 50GW. He believes that air pollution in South Asia is becoming more and more serious, and the above two problems must be solved in order to improve the profitability of solar energy systems.

According to past studies, in areas with severe air pollution, suspended particles can reduce solar power generation by more than 50% due to dirty solar panels and reduced chance of rainfall. Bhupendra Das, an environmental researcher at Tribhuvan University in Nepal, also pointed out that acid rain can also corrode solar equipment and brackets, driving up maintenance costs.

The team believes that the solution at this stage is to find the optimal tilt angle to install the solar panel. Compared with the horizontal installation module, the dust is less likely to accumulate or get stuck, and it can also be converted into a more expensive sun tracking system; but in the long run, it may be It still has to rely on India’s air pollution prevention and control plan. For example, India launched the National Clean Air Programme in 2019. The goal is to reduce the PM 2.5 concentration by 20% to 30% in 2024 based on 2017.

Otherwise, according to the “2021 Global Air Quality Report” released by IQAir, a Swiss air quality technology company, the most polluted capital in the world is New Delhi, India. The average PM2.5 concentration ranked first, and 34 other cities in India were also ranked among the most polluted cities in the world.

British private nuclear fusion technology breakthrough, ST40 reactor temperature reaches 100 million degrees Celsius

Tokamak Energy, a British private nuclear fusion company, has reached a new milestone. The temperature of the spherical tokamak ST-40 reactor successfully exceeded 100 million degrees Celsius, crossing one of the thresholds for commercial nuclear fusion.

Nuclear fusion technology mainly fuses hydrogen atoms into heavier atoms under high temperature and high pressure, and captures the huge energy generated in the process. The principle is relatively simple, but the practice is very difficult. It can be said to be a distant dream. It is hoped that the progress of nuclear fusion research will be accelerated, and that it will bring nearly infinite, clean and huge energy to the society, and ultimately change the energy market.

In fact, many state-run reactors have reached a high temperature of over 100 million degrees Celsius. However, in terms of investment amount, the cost of Tokamak Energy ST-40 is only 50 million pounds. Although it is not known how long ST-40 can maintain 100 million degrees, But being able to reach a similar milestone at a lower cost is a remarkable achievement.

Among them, the ST-40 reactor is different from the traditional tokamak that looks like a big donut and the star simulator like a hair ring. Tokamak Energy adopts a more compact spherical design, claiming that its electric The plasma pressure is higher than in conventional tokamak devices, and high-temperature superconducting magnets can be used to control the plasma, which is then converted into usable energy.

ST40 mainly uses high temperature superconducting (HTS) magnets made of rare-earth Barium Copper Oxide (REBCO), forming narrow strips with a thickness of less than 0.1mm. The operating temperature of these high temperature magnets is between -250 and -200 degrees Celsius, which is similar to the temperature of liquid nitrogen, thus saving a lot of cooling costs.

It’s just that although the design of the spherical reactor is smaller and simpler, the plasma is more stable in the nuclear fusion reaction process, but compared with the traditional tokamak, the total pressure of the reactor is smaller, and the central pillar is easily affected by the plasma decay, requiring regular replace. Tokamak Energy is also currently developing a more advanced reactor ST-HTS, which is expected to be operational within a few years and hopes to be the cornerstone of the first commercial power plant in the 2030s.

Chris Kelsall, CEO of Tokamak Energy, said: “We are proud of this breakthrough, a step towards a new and safe carbon-free energy source. The team’s HTS magnet paired with a spherical tokamak is the best way to achieve clean and low-cost commercial nuclear fusion energy.

Why is the oil price soaring? Traders are in a cash shortage, and crude oil open positions are cut in half

Why is the price of raw materials so intense? Relevant people explained that the exchange requires raw material manufacturers to pay high margins, and the industry is in distress and forced to liquidate positions, causing prices to fluctuate.

The Wall Street Journal and Reuters reported that raw material prices are too volatile, margin requirements have surged, and the cost of maintaining existing positions or opening new ones is extremely high. Many market participants are running out of money and can only sell their positions.

The most obvious example is open interest in Brent and West Texas Intermediate, which have halved this year. Not only that, in the past four weeks, the open interest of the six most important oil-related futures and option contracts has dropped by nearly 1 billion barrels, an unprecedented drop. Reduced liquidity will further exacerbate price volatility.

how to say? After Russia sent troops to Ukraine on February 24, Brent crude oil rose and fell by as much as 4% in 10 trading days, and oil prices once stood at a 14-year high, approaching $140 a barrel. Later, the industry was subject to margin calls and was forced to liquidate positions, and oil prices fell below $100 a barrel. Oil prices surged after Yemeni rebels, Houthi, attacked Saudi Arabia’s crude oil facilities on the 21st.

Raw material futures contracts can be used for speculation or hedging. When placing an order, the exchange will collect collateral and initial margin, and refund or ask for supplementary money according to the daily increase of the position. Recently, the market risk has increased day by day, and exchanges have increased the cost of original margin and variation margin.

The pressure of financing recovery is increasing day by day, it is difficult for traders to manage the financial risks of physical delivery of raw materials, and the cost of hedging is soaring, which also makes some transactions unprofitable. Some diesel and crude oil producers have been unable to find buyers at routine auctions. Insiders revealed that to hedge some liquefied natural gas (LNG) transactions, the original margin was close to three-quarters of the value of the underlying, which almost made it impossible to make money in LNG trading.

Electricity prices soar, Italian factories close

The war between Russia and Ukraine has made the European energy crisis looming. Many countries that are highly dependent on Russian energy have seen factories being forced to close. For example, in Italy, where about 40% of its electricity comes from Russian natural gas, due to soaring electricity prices, some produce everything from pizza boxes to furniture packaging. Paper mills for the product have been shut down, several steel mills have been forced to close, and even drivers have gone on strike because of soaring oil prices, and fishermen have stopped going to sea.

Italy’s dependence on Russian gas has soared from 27% to 43% over the past decade. There was a time when natural gas consumption fell between 2010 and 2014 due to increased subsidies for wind and solar power, but in recent years the reliance on natural gas has risen again due to the closure of polluting coal-fired power plants.

The Italian government said it would take at least two years to diversify its energy sources from dependence on Russia. Even before the war, Europe was facing a severe energy crunch, driving up the cost of electricity, food, supplies and everything, so the war sanctioned Russia, leading to an energy blackout crisis that affected Europe much more than the United States.

Companies such as Italian paper and packaging manufacturers were able to hold out and continue to operate when the price of natural gas rose during the energy crisis at the end of last year, but the Russian-Ukrainian war made them unbearable. One paper and packaging manufacturer said that at that time, the electricity price per trillion 90 euros per watt hour, now soaring to 300 euros, in order to make money, the price had to be nearly doubled from 680 euros per ton to 1,200 euros, this price is simply not feasible, had to suspend the operation of six factories, affecting Italy One third of packaging needs. Steel mills have also closed, and industry players say it has never had to shut down electric furnaces.

Soaring energy prices have a knock-on effect in Italy. Italian truck drivers cannot afford soaring gasoline prices and have threatened to strike. The fishermen also decided not to go out fishing. Not only Italy was hit, but a stainless steel manufacturer in Spain also stopped production and furloughed all 1,800 employees. The steelmaker’s net profit soared to a record 572 million euros the previous year as global demand surged.

The head of AEGE, which represents energy-intensive companies in Spain, said that Spain’s energy-intensive industries are suffering from rising electricity supply costs, reaching levels unprecedented in the market, warning activities face serious risks and urging the Spanish government to take emergency measures.

High electricity prices are almost unbearable for producers. Finland has started a nuclear power plant that has been delayed for 12 years. Originally, the nuclear power plant was to be opened in 2009, but because of a technical problem that turned into a legal dispute, the plan was suspended. After the dispute was resolved in 2018, it was put into operation at a critical moment in the Russian-Ukrainian war. This is Finland’s first new nuclear power plant in more than 40 years and the first new nuclear power plant in Europe in nearly 15 years. It is expected to meet 14% of Finland’s electricity. By then, about 90% of Finland’s power generation will come from clean and low-carbon power sources. half.

The Ukrainian conflict has led many Europeans to believe that reducing the entire Europe’s reliance on Russia for fuel imports is also a relief, given the uncertainty and economic consequences. The European Commission has proposed plans to diversify Europe’s fossil fuel supply away from Russia and move more quickly to renewable energy.

US Uber imposes fuel surcharges, electric car charges are also controversial

Affected by the global epidemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war, energy prices have risen sharply around the world, and the United States is of course no exception. Uber has therefore added a temporary fuel surcharge, which has caused controversy as electric vehicles are also levied.

Liza Winship, Uber’s head of driving operations in the U.S. and Canada, recently blogged that in a special situation, passengers will have to pay an additional $0.45 or $0.55 temporary fuel surcharge each time they use Uber service for 60 days, and Uber Eats will also add 0.35 per order per order. USD or CAD 0.45 surcharge.

Uber said the surcharge would be fully passed on to the driver to offset the cost of rising fuel prices, and that even if you drive an electric vehicle, the surcharge is a way to encourage drivers to transition to electric vehicles. However, she also acknowledged that it is difficult to buy an electric car at the moment, including factors such as insufficient supply and high prices.

SpaceX rocket’s Mars mission, power hidden in the world’s largest hydrogen factory

A long time ago, human beings would look up at the starry sky. The development of science and technology allowed human beings to rush out of the blue planet of life and start to explore the vast universe. To go further, rocket fuel is of course important.

US start-up Green Hydrogen International (GHI) recently announced a 60GW renewable hydrogen project in Texas, powered by wind and solar power, stored in salt caverns.

The “Hydrogen City” in Duval, South Texas, will be the world’s largest green hydrogen production and storage center. After completion, it can produce more than 2.5 million tons of green hydrogen (hydrogen obtained from renewable energy sources such as photovoltaic power generation, wind power and solar energy) per year, which is approximately equal to today’s global grayscale. Hydrogen (fossil fuel combustion produces hydrogen) production 3.5%. Centered on the hydrogen storage facility at Piedras Pintas Salt Dome in Duval, green hydrogen will be piped to Corpus Christi and Brownsville for conversion into green ammonia, sustainable aviation fuel and other products, or across the state Hydrogen power plants and other users.

One of Green Hydrogen International’s planned green hydrogen uses is sustainable rocket fuel, and it is considering combining hydrogen with carbon dioxide at Brownsville to create green methane rocket fuel for South Texas launch operations. Brownsville is also home to the SpaceX South Texas launch site, which SpaceX announced in 2018 would be a dedicated launch site for the SpaceX Starship.

SpaceX is developing a new rocket engine, the SpaceX Raptor, for use with the developing Starship. The Raptor engine will be fueled by cryogenic liquid methane and liquid oxygen, rather than kerosene-based fuel. When SpaceX was established, Musk said that the destination for space exploration is Mars. To land on Mars, how to go and how to get back are important issues. To rush out of the earth to reach Mars, the engine must generate enough specific impulse, and the upper limit of the specific impulse is determined by the fuel. If the return fuel is carried at the start, it is not realistic to increase the rocket load, and it is necessary to replenish the fuel in the universe to return to the earth.

At present, the ideal fuels should be liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen, but liquid hydrogen is difficult to manufacture and store. The melting point of methane (-182°C) is comparable to the boiling point of liquid oxygen (-182.96°C). The temperature difference between kerosene, liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen has lower requirements on the fuel storage tank, which can also reduce the structural weight.

The specific impulse of the methane liquid oxygen engine is between the liquid hydrogen oxygen engine and the liquid oxygen kerosene engine, and it can sail to Mars. What’s more, the Martian environment has carbon dioxide and ice that can be made into methane and oxygen, meaning SpaceX Raptor rockets can be refueled on Mars.

Renewable energy is undoubtedly the future development direction. The hydrogen obtained by Green Hydrogen International using renewable energy has various uses. With the help of GHI hydrogen, I hope that the day when the SpaceX rocket will land on Mars will come soon.

Oil prices continue to rise, airline tickets are set to rise

International oil prices jumped in shock, and the market expects that oil prices will only be higher in the short term. Since fuel accounts for 30% of airline costs, the surge in oil prices is another blow to the unrecovered aviation industry. Airlines are already mulling price increases, such as Qantas Airways, which has said it needs to increase its revenue per seat-kilometre by 7 per cent, saying it is small enough to affect travel to some extent.

In fact, rising oil prices will not necessarily affect airlines. General airlines will adopt a hedging strategy to respond to oil price fluctuations. For example, European airline Lufthansa has hedged 63% of its fuel demand in 2022 to $74 per barrel, and Ryanair said that by March next year, 80% of its fuel demand The hedge price is $63 a barrel. British Airways has said it will hedge 60% of its fuel prices for the rest of the year, but did not specify a price cap.

Hedging can help airlines avoid rapid fluctuations in fuel costs, allowing them to keep fares stable even when oil prices rise or fall rapidly. Southwest Airlines used a fuel hedging strategy in the 2000s that allowed them to lock in jet fuel prices well below what competitors paid, giving them a huge competitive advantage in pricing.

Delta Air Lines operates an oil refinery. In addition, Southwest Airlines and Alaska Airlines have hedged some fuel needs. But the three largest U.S. global airlines, American Airlines, Delta Airlines and United Airlines, are not hedged. Another big factor affecting fares is demand, and while U.S. airlines typically aren’t hedged, the recovery has been stronger and can therefore boldly pass on costs to customers. For example, strong demand in the United States has caused American Airlines to raise prices. Travel booking app Hopper said domestic airfares have risen 21 percent since the start of the year and international airfares 13 percent.

The situation is different in Europe, where the recovery in demand has not been strong since the start of the pandemic, and some European airlines such as Lufthansa and Ryanair have tried to make up for this through heavy fuel hedging, or airlines buying fuel in advance at fixed or capped rates contract. Demand is still everything, and European airlines may be reluctant to raise prices immediately, even with a surge in oil prices.

Even though changes in oil prices don’t affect air passengers as quickly as they do car driving, fuel costs are a major concern for airlines. Hopper economist Adit Damodaran said that, on average, 30% of an airline’s operating costs come from fuel costs, and a 10% increase in jet fuel costs would result in a 3% increase in airline operating expenses. Jet fuel costs have risen 113% since the start of 2021, and airfares are set to rise in 2022.

Qantas said that with the expiration of the oil hedging contract, air ticket prices are expected to need to rise. Although the recovery of business travel is slow, the domestic leisure travel market and some key cities have even higher international demand than before the epidemic. Jefferies analyst Anthony Moulder reported that Qantas has the ability to raise fares and slow capacity increases in response to higher oil prices. However, Qantas chief executive said the 7 per cent increase in revenue per seat per kilometre was modest but large enough to impact travel to some extent.

Fuel supply is tight, Musk: Now we need to increase oil and gas production immediately

The Russian-Ukrainian war has disrupted the supply of oil and other fuels, and the price of natural gas has therefore risen. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has admitted that more fossil fuel production is needed now, even if the speech may be detrimental to its electric car company Tesla .

Musk said on Twitter on Saturday (5th), “I hate to say this, but we need to increase oil and gas production immediately, and in extraordinary times need extraordinary measures.” He argues that the adoption of renewable energy for electric vehicles is not fast enough to protect consumers from higher prices in the short term.

Musk admitted that obviously this will have a negative impact on Tesla, but the sustainable energy plan simply cannot immediately make up for the shortfall in Russian oil and gas.

People familiar with the matter alleged that Musk’s tweet came as the White House was evaluating a ban on imports of Russian crude, an idea previously rejected by U.S. President Joe Biden and calls by U.S. oil industry leaders for higher production.

International oil prices recorded their largest weekly gain in history on Friday (4th), with commodities such as crops, metals and natural gas soaring. U.S. West Texas crude oil April futures surged 7.4% to $115.68 a barrel, a new high since 2008; London Brent crude oil May futures rose 6.9% to $118.11 a barrel, both posting their biggest weekly gain since mid-2020.

The Russian army captured the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, experts worry about the leakage of radioactive pollution

One day after the Russian army launched its attack on Ukraine, Ukrainian officials confirmed that the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, located north of Kiev, has been occupied by the Russian army. Although there are no reports of damage to the power plant equipment, it has aroused the concern of nuclear energy experts from various countries. Re-emergence of fighting on the ground may damage part of the nuclear waste cooling pool, leading to the leakage of radioactive contamination.

The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant started operation in 1977. In 1986, an explosion and leakage incident that shocked the world occurred. The damaged Unit 4 was sealed with a large amount of cement grouting after the incident. However, due to the power vacancy, the remaining The 3 units were still in operation until 2000 before they were all shut down.

In 2017, the Ukrainian government spent 170 million US dollars on the grouting Unit 4, and built another layer of stainless steel building to strengthen the storage strength, ensuring that the 200 metric tons of radioactive materials sealed in Unit 4 at the time of the incident would no longer flow out.

According to statistics, the leakage of pollution caused by the explosion accident in 1986 directly caused 56 deaths, and subsequently affected tens of thousands of people, including cancer and other radiation-related symptoms.

Including the International Energy Association and Ukrainian nuclear energy experts said that before the power plant was completely closed in 2000, there were still many waste fuel rods temporarily stored in the cooling pool near the power plant. The fuel rods in these cooling pools were taken out several years later, and the radioactivity was far higher than that in Unit 4.

Although nuclear energy experts from various countries generally believe that the Russian army has no special motivation to damage the equipment of the Chernobyl power plant, although the power plant was occupied, it was not damaged, indicating that the situation is still under control.

However, if the Ukrainian army counterattacks and fights again near the power plant, any explosion may damage the nuclear waste in the cooling pool, causing the leakage of radioactive pollution, and the spread area will affect the entire European continent, so it should not be taken lightly.

Therefore, many nuclear energy experts have condemned the Russian military’s attack on the nuclear power plant.

The incentive for high oil prices is no longer, and the shale oil industry: the oil price of $200 has no intention of expanding production

Oil-producing countries are reluctant to significantly expand production, coupled with the haze of war, international oil prices have soared to more than $90 a barrel, and will rise by 20% in 2022. All parties expect that oil prices will only continue to rise. On the other hand, they also believe that the increase in US shale oil production under high oil prices will be able to effectively curb the trend of oil prices, but it may not be able to do so. The largest shale oil company in the United States has made it clear that even if oil prices rise to $200, it will still Not interested in massive expansion.

There has been a lot of news from the U.S. shale play recently, including two consecutive months of record-breaking production in the Permian. The U.S. total could also break records this year due to higher prices, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts. In the past two years, U.S. shale oil companies have vowed to abide by capital discipline, refraining from investing heavily to expand production, lest the price collapse is lost.

However, industry insiders believe that after years of burning cash and issuing new shares to make ends meet, shale oil producers have realized that shareholders have no patience, and this time they have noticed their reluctance to expand production. The reason is that in the past, U.S. shale oil production continued to rise and expanded at all costs, resulting in a drop in oil demand during the first wave of lockdowns in the epidemic. For the first time in history, U.S. oil fell below $0 per barrel. Although it was short-lived, it seemed to bring American shale drillers. Lessons learned, realizing the need to reset priorities.

So even as some private producers have increased spending on drilling recently, the largest U.S. public company has not been tempted by $90, saying that even $150 or even $200 a barrel would not change its conservative production growth plans.

The CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources Company said that if the president wanted to expand production, the industry would not do it anyway. Large shale producers including Pioneer Natural Resources, Continental Resources and Devon Energy have all planned to increase output by no more than 5% a year.

The rise in oil prices is just the time for shale companies to start offering shareholder compensation. “Oil Price” reported that the energy transition and sustainable investment (ESG) commitments have a huge impact, and investors are now losing confidence in the oil industry, so it is more challenging to retain investors, prompting these listed companies to change their behavior. U.S. shale companies are reluctant to ramp up production, and aside from the need to keep shareholders happy, other issues include that drilling costs are not as cheap as before and that there are fewer locations available for drilling.

The report pointed out that the easy-to-drill deposits have been exhausted, so drillers must pay more to expand production, and the US shale oil industry does not think it is worth paying the price for now. The CEO of American Vanguard Natural Resources said that 15% to 20% annual production growth is unsustainable, and even the best companies will see their stocks run out quickly. In addition, due to supply chain issues and labor shortages, deploying rigs that took only a few weeks now takes four months, making it difficult to accelerate expansion.

High oil prices have been a lure in the past, but this year is different, and even if they are willing to increase production, factors are keeping these producers from rushing, at least not as quickly or cheaply as in the past. Historically, higher markets due to tighter product and crude inventories have been difficult to resolve without a demand-destroying event or a supply surge, neither of which seems likely. Analysts at Energy Aspects interviewed by Bloomberg believe that high oil prices slowing demand growth is the only way to balance the market in the medium term. Oil-producing countries are reluctant to significantly expand production, coupled with the haze of war, international oil prices have soared to more than $90 a barrel, and will rise by 20% in 2022. All parties expect that oil prices will only continue to rise. On the other hand, they also believe that the increase in US shale oil production under high oil prices will be able to effectively curb the trend of oil prices, but it may not be able to do so. The largest shale oil company in the United States has made it clear that even if oil prices rise to $200, it will still Not interested in massive expansion.

There has been a lot of news from the U.S. shale play recently, including two consecutive months of record-breaking production in the Permian. The U.S. total could also break records this year due to higher prices, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts. In the past two years, U.S. shale oil companies have vowed to abide by capital discipline, refraining from investing heavily to expand production, lest the price collapse is lost.

However, industry insiders believe that after years of burning cash and issuing new shares to make ends meet, shale oil producers have realized that shareholders have no patience, and this time they have noticed their reluctance to expand production. The reason is that in the past, U.S. shale oil production continued to rise and expanded at all costs, resulting in a drop in oil demand during the first wave of lockdowns in the epidemic. For the first time in history, U.S. oil fell below $0 per barrel. Although it was short-lived, it seemed to bring American shale drillers. Lessons learned, realizing the need to reset priorities.

So even as some private producers have increased spending on drilling recently, the largest U.S. public company has not been tempted by $90, saying that even $150 or even $200 a barrel would not change its conservative production growth plans.

The CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources Company said that if the president wanted to expand production, the industry would not do it anyway. Large shale producers including Pioneer Natural Resources, Continental Resources and Devon Energy have all planned to increase output by no more than 5% a year.

The rise in oil prices is just the time for shale companies to start offering shareholder compensation. “Oil Price” reported that the energy transition and sustainable investment (ESG) commitments have a huge impact, and investors are now losing confidence in the oil industry, so it is more challenging to retain investors, prompting these listed companies to change their behavior. U.S. shale companies are reluctant to ramp up production, and aside from the need to keep shareholders happy, other issues include that drilling costs are not as cheap as before and that there are fewer locations available for drilling.

The report pointed out that the easy-to-drill deposits have been exhausted, so drillers must pay more to expand production, and the US shale oil industry does not think it is worth paying the price for now. The CEO of American Vanguard Natural Resources said that 15% to 20% annual production growth is unsustainable, and even the best companies will see their stocks run out quickly. In addition, due to supply chain issues and labor shortages, deploying rigs that took only a few weeks now takes four months, making it difficult to accelerate expansion.

High oil prices have been a lure in the past, but this year is different, and even if they are willing to increase production, factors are keeping these producers from rushing, at least not as quickly or cheaply as in the past. Historically, higher markets due to tighter product and crude inventories have been difficult to resolve without a demand-destroying event or a supply surge, neither of which seems likely. Analysts at Energy Aspects interviewed by Bloomberg believe that high oil prices slowing demand growth is the only way to balance the market in the medium term.